One of the most important storylines of the 2009-10 Celtics season has been Rajon Rondo’s emergence into a full-fledged star. His assists are up, his steals are way up and he has the big contract and All-Star appearance to back him up.

But the true revelation with Rondo this season has been his improved mid-range game. His traditional field goal percentage is up slightly from just over 50 percent to 52.9 percent, but that only tells part of the story. For that we need to turn to Hoop Data, a website that tracks where a player shoots, and how often he makes it.

For stat geeks, Hoop Data is a treasure trove of interesting numbers. For example Glen Davis has his shot blocked a fairly amazing 21 percent of the time, which helps explain why he has had so much trouble finishing around the basket.

Back to Rondo. According to Hoop Data’s numbers, he has improved his shooting percentage at the rim and raised it significantly from 10-15 feet in to the basket. That would be the in-between game so many purists long for.

In 2009, Rondo took a little more than half his shots at the rim and made over 61 percent of them, which is very good for a point guard. This season he has increased his attempts slightly (from 5.1 to 5.4), and also improved his percentage to over 65 percent. That meshes with how most people see Rondo–as a player who can get to the basket and finish well despite his size.

To give you an idea on how that compares to other point guards, only San Antonio’s Tony Parker takes as many shots per game and finishes as well as the rim as Rondo.

Rondo’s real work has come slightly farther out. From 10 feet and in, Rondo’s accuracy goes from 40 percent in 2009 to 53 percent in 2010. From 10-15 feet away from the basket, Rondo’s percentage jumps from 35.2 to 52.5 percent. He has also upped his attempts from those distances over the previous season.

What all that shows is a player understanding how to utilize his ability to beat defenders off the dribble, and how to score once he does.

It’s not all good news for Rondo. His accuracy on longer shots and 3-pointers has dropped, as has his free throw shooting, which is a genuine cause for concern since it removes him from late-game situations. Rondo may never be a great long-range shooter, but if he can continue to master the in-between game–and get his free throw shooting up to a respectable level–he won’t have to be one to be effective.

4 Comments for “Rondo’s improved shooting”

1. Jason Says:
   February 16th, 2010 at 8:32 pm

   Any chance you happen to have the data to distinguish and filter out “desperation” shots? For example, if it’s a half court shot, or if the shot came as the clock (game or shot) was expiring. From watching Rondo, it seems many of his 3s are flings he has to take due to the circumstances. On the rare occasion he takes a “normal” 3, he does reasonably well. His success at the end of the HORSE competition lends more evidence to this theory. Anyway, point is, I’m not saying he’s an excellent 3pt shooter, but if you filtered out desperation 3s, which I believe are the bulk of his 3s, I would expect his percentage would jump significantly from the “gawdawful” range.

2. tyler Says:
   February 16th, 2010 at 9:56 pm

   thats not the real problem jason. the free throw shooting is. its ok to be a poor 3pt shooter when you can get to the basket at will on any defender in the nba. the problem is when your whole offensive game is predicated on getting into the paint, and you shoot 60% when you’re fouled. if youre reading articles as pointless as this, i assume youre enough of a basketbell fan to realize that guys get fouled pretty frequently in the paint. all he has to do is convert those opportunities and he’ll be the best point guard in the nba. in my extremely biased opinion. a playmaking point guards best friend is the drive and kick. this is based on the respect you earn around the basket. if nobody helps on you, nobodys open. and if every player on the court knows you just have to be wrapped up, youre all done and the celtics get another 1-2 from rondo. who wants a jumpshooting PG anyway?

3. Jason Says:
   February 17th, 2010 at 12:04 am

   I didn’t know we were discussing the “real problem.” I’m quite aware of Rondo’s strengths and his flaws. I was discussing the point I brought up, which is his 3pt shooting, saying it’s probably not as bad as most people think.

   As to your points, being a good 3pt-shooter is valuable, PG or not. Not only is it an efficient way to score, but anyone who follows the NBA, never mind the Cs, knows how drastically people sag off Rondo. If that shot is respectable, the floor spacing will improve for his driving and for the entire team as well.

4. tyler Says:
   February 17th, 2010 at 12:18 am

   its about priorities. a PG who spaces the floor is a luxury. not being respected in the paint is a much bigger deal. and whos he spacing the floor for anyway? is pierce going to limp in? haha against SAC right on cue, lucky goaltend.

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