Lost in the LeBron James sweepstakes (well, at least lost on a national level) is that Paul Pierce has until midnight tomorrow (June 30) to decide whether to decline the option for the final year of his contract and walk away from $21.5 million.

Is he going to do it? Does a 33-year-old forward with about 125,000 miles on his NBA tires really think there is a team out there that is going to throw him, say, $75 million over five years?

“I do have doubts,” said Danny Ainge last week on WEEI when asked if he thought Pierce would return to finish out his contract. “I’m not certain of what Paul may do. I don’t know because he may be able to get a long-term contract somewhere else. It may be better than what we have [to offer].”

Not exactly the hard pitch for Pierce to stick around. There is growing sentiment that Ainge might not be inconsolable should Pierce choose to take his chances in free agency. Paying someone big money for what they have done as opposed to what they will do isn’t exactly Step One in the rebuilding handbook. The idea of keeping Pierce as a career Celtic is great in theory, but in the salary-cap era there simply isn’t a lot of wiggle room for sentimentality.

But back to Pierce himself. Does it make sense to take his bat and ball into the open market? A couple of questions he has to consider:

Does he care about his legacy?

OK, that’s a little extreme. He’s done enough to earn his place, no matter where he plays in 2010-11 and beyond. But Pierce has always been steadfast in his desire to be a member of the Celtics for his entire career. The truly great players in franchise history– Russell, Cousy, Hondo, Bird, Cowens, McHale — never played a significant NBA second in another uniform. Does that matter to Pierce? Or does he feel that his legacy is secure even he spends four years with the Clippers or (ugh) Knicks?

Does he think the Celtics are still legitimate title contenders?

Could be that Pierce takes a look at the landscape and sees an aging and oft-injured Kevin Garnett, a possibly departing Ray Allen, a retired Rasheed Wallace and Doc Rivers getting ready for his TNT closeup. That is glass is half empty to be sure, but not too far from reality. If Pierce doesn’t think there is another title chance left in Boston during his remaining basketball years, why not take the money and go somewhere else? Or it’s possible he could see how who goes where , take a little less dough, and be the No. 2 or 3 guy for a team that needs one more piece? How about 4 years and $48 million to play with Dwayne Wade and Carlos Boozer in Miami?

Is there a team that will give him a long-term deal?

If Pierce is simply looking for the biggest cash out, his best bet might be a team that struck out in the LeBron derby and are trying to placate a bitter fanbase. Could be the Knicks or Clippers, of course. Maybe a reunion with Tom Thibodeau? I don’t think the idea of Paul Pierce, in the autumn of his career, coming in as de facto savior would be a great lift to the spirits of a jilted hoops community. Pierce’s value around the NBA isn’t close to what it is for the Celtics. And I can’t believe that he’s going to get a maximum contract, particularly in a lousy economy with a collective bargaining agreement looming (and the owners smell blood — they will sit and wait for the players to give in. Nothing close to a middle ground this time. The days of huge contracts will be gone) just a year away. But you can never count out an owner or GM giving in to panic.

Is the smart move to work out an extension with the Celtics?

Makes too much sense not to happen, doesn’t it? Can’t Ainge and Jeff Schwartz (Pierce’s agent) find a number of years and dollars that work for both sides? How about three years and $42 million? Gives the Celtics some cap room over the next few years and Pierce keeps face with a solid extension. Pierce may not be the player he was a couple of years ago, but he’s still be decent value at that contract. And he gets one more payday before what will be a hugely restrictive CBA kicks in.

If I’m Danny that’s my best and final offer. Three years, $42 million. If Pierce doesn’t think that’s enough? You shake hands, wish him well, and get started on the rebuild. Remember, only so much room today for sentimentality.

9 Comments for “Should Paul Pierce opt out of his contract?”

1. Bill Waldron Says:
   June 29th, 2010 at 12:16 pm

   >>The truly great players in franchise history– Russell, Cousy, Hondo, Bird, Cowens, McHale — never played a significant NBA second in another uniform.<<

   Don’t know what your definition of “significant” is, but Cowens came out of retirement to play for Nellie with the Bucks in 82-83 — a playoff team that swept the C’s. Big Red wasn’t the player he once was, but he played 25+ minutes per game with reasonable numbers. More than a “second,” and not insignificant numbers, really. But we forgave him

2. Andrew Says:
   June 29th, 2010 at 12:21 pm

   If Pierce opts out, what impact does it have on the cap for the Celtics in the current free agent season? Would that give them any flexibility to go after a younger, second tier free agent like Joe Johnson? If it would, as much as I like Paul Pierce, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if he opted out.

3. Don Says:
   June 29th, 2010 at 12:39 pm

   Kirk:

   Building on Andrew’s question …. if Pierce opts out and Sheed does retire, doesn’t that save the Celts almost $28M. I seem to recall that not all of Sheed’s money could be applied against the cap …. is that truth or fiction? Anyways, if the Celts lost the entirety of those contracts, they would have about 36M committed to four players … Rondo, KG, Perk and Baby. That leaves the team about $20M under the cap (assuming a ~56M cap)and in a position to hand out a “max” deal.

4. Chris Says:
   June 29th, 2010 at 12:55 pm

   Don’t forget Avery Bradley’s built in #19 overall pick salary. (Don’t know it off the top of my head, but just picking their guarantees a cap hit).

   To go after a big name FA we have to forfeit bird rights over all our players. This would leave us about $18 mil under the cap. Problem is, is say we strike out with big name FAs. We’re now under the cap and can’t offer more than the $18 mil we have, which means… Fine go after a big name, but if it comes down to saying, “Okay, we’ll come back to Pierce and Allen,” Bird Rights are gone (which means we can’t surpass the cap to retain them). So essentially Ray and Paul would need to agree to $9 mil/year contracts, and then we’d have to fill out our roster with all league/veteran minimum guys, because going under the salary cap also forfeits a teams ability to offer Mid-Level Exception.

   And to what everyone’s been saying… is Joe Johnson really worth it? I’d rather overpay Pierce than Johnson. Joe didn’t show up in the playoffs. He’s not tested beyond the regular season. Is he someone you want to bring in to “rebuild.”

   I say swallow your losses, have one more go of it with the Big 3, and position yourself to go after Durant in 2 years if he doesn’t get maxed out by OKC this summer.

   Also, we could sign and trade for Al Jefferson. Minnesota is desperately trying to move him/clear cap room. Why don’t we (on July 1st) re-sign Marquis Daniels, and Shelden Williams and move them, with Rasheed’s deal to Minnesota for Al. I’m sure draft picks will need to be included, or maybe ‘Sota wants TA or Nate, but Al Jefferson should be, and most likely is being considered.

5. norm davis Says:
   June 29th, 2010 at 3:20 pm

   If he wants to go let him go, It all comes down for every player and that is money and Paul (fumble) Pierce is no different

6. Andrew Says:
   June 29th, 2010 at 3:37 pm

   There is no way Durant won’t get a max deal. Agreed that Joe Johnson isn’t a franchise player, but he would benefit immensely from playing and running with Rondo, and would serve a similar role to Ray – spreading the floor. I think Rondo is going to become similar to Steve Nash where he can impact the quality of play from seemingly lesser players. Shawn Marion was nearly an all star with Nash (18 and 10 his last full year playing with Nash) and this past year, even with Jason Kidd, he was 12 and 6.

   That is why I am fairly happy with the idea of spending the exception on Brad Miller. Rondo can get in the lane and kick to him at 15 feet all day (which should have been the case with Sheed). I am just not thrilled about Miller’s rebounding ability at this stage in his career.

7. winson_boss88 Says:
   June 29th, 2010 at 5:32 pm

   Yes!!!!!Yes! please opt out…Do not sign Ray…Wish that Garnett request to be traded…Imagine Rondo, Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, Boozer, Amare as your starting five….yeaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!

8. briaudio Says:
   June 30th, 2010 at 2:35 am

   “Imagine Rondo, Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, Boozer, Amare as your starting five….yeaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!”

   I imagine you smoking crack in your mothers basement, seeing that the lineup you named is completely impossible

9. MR. MAJESTIC Says:
   June 30th, 2010 at 9:42 am

   LET PAUL LEAVE,LET’S GET YOUNGER,RUDY GAY WOULD BE A GREAT START!!!!

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