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Irish Coffee: Why Miami is a fifth seed 11.10.10 at 1:53 pm ET
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Wake up with the Celtics and your daily dose of Irish Coffee …

The offseason’s biggest hype — How far can the Big Three (LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh) carry the Miami Heat? – has now become the regular season’s biggest question — How far can the Little Two (Carlos Arroyo and Joel Anthony) drag down the Heat?

After Utah’s 116-114 overtime win Tuesday night against the Heat, the writing is on the wall: Miami needs point guard and post help — STAT. If the Heat don’t get it, should they meet, the Celtics will beat them in the NBA playoffs.

So far, the Heat are 0-3 against elite point guards (Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Deron Williams). That trio averaged 12.7 points and 16.7 assists — producing 46.1 points per game — against Arroyo, who averaged just 5.3 points and 1.0 assists (producing 7.3 points) in those three games. From the point guard position alone, the Heat essentially started each game in a 39-point hole.

Overall, in the Heat’s eight games, Arroyo is averaging 5.6 fewer points and 6.3 fewer assists (18.2 fewer points produced) than his point guard counterpart. You know it’s bad when Devin Harris totals six points and one assist — and outplays you. Thursday night’s game against Rondo isn’t going to help, either.

Take a look at Arroyo’s production against Miami opponents’ primary point guard:

  • Arroyo: 3 points-0 rebounds-0 assists; Rondo: 4-5-17
  • Arroyo: 6-3-1; Louis Williams: 15-1-7
  • Arroyo: 7-4-4; Jameer Nelson: 10-3-1
  • Arroyo: 12-5-4; Harris: 13-1-6
  • Arroyo: 8-6-3; Sebastian Telfair: 13-1-1
  • Arroyo: 0-1-1; Paul: 13-2-19
  • Arroyo: 4-1-0; Harris: 6-2-1
  • Arroyo: 10-0-2; Deron Williams: 21-4-14
  • Total: 50-19-16; Opponents: 95-19-66
  • Average: 6.3-2.4-2.0; Opponents: 11.9-2.4-8.3

Things get far worse in Miami when you factor in the center position. Joel Anthony is averaging just 1.9 points and 4.3 rebounds in eight games. He’s scored only 15 points in 145 minutes this season. His counterparts?  Oh, they’re only averaging 14.5 points and 7.4 rebounds against him.

Take a look at Anthony’s production against the primary center for Miami’s opponent on that given night:

  • Anthony: 2 points-7 rebounds-1 assist; Glen Davis: 13-5-0
  • Anthony: 0-3-0; Elton Brand: 12-9-0
  • Anthony: 0-4-0; Dwight Howard: 19-7-0
  • Anthony: 1-3-2; Brook Lopez: 20-5-1
  • Anthony: 4-5-0; Nikola Pekovic: 12-8-0
  • Anthony: 2-5-0; Emeka Okafor: 26-13-1
  • Anthony: 2-2-0; Lopez: 12-3-2
  • Anthony: 4-5-0; Al Jefferson: 2-9-2
  • Total: 15-34-3; Opponents: 116-59-6
  • Average: 1.9-4.3-0.4; Opponents: 14.5-7.4-0.8

Because of how putrid Arroyo and Anthony have been this season, the remaining members of the Heat have to make up an average of 18.2 points per game. They might be capable of that if Bosh wasn’t also being outplayed.

On average, after being dominated by Paul Millsap Tuesday night, Bosh has been outscored by his counterparts by 1.7 points and out-rebounded by 1.1 boards per game. See how he’s fared against opponents:

  • Bosh: 8 points-8 rebounds-2 assists; Kevin Garnett: 10-10-3
  • Bosh: 15-7-1; Thaddeus Young: 15-3-1
  • Bosh: 11-10-1; Rashard Lewis: 2-3-0
  • Bosh: 18-1-2; Derrick Favors: 13-13-1
  • Bosh: 13-6-2; Kevin Love: 20-6-1
  • Bosh: 15-1-1; David West: 15-7-0
  • Bosh: 21-5-2; Favors: 11-5-0
  • Bosh: 17-9-3; Millsap: 46-9-1
  • Total: 118-47-14; Opponents: 132-56-7
  • Average: 14.8-5.9-1.8; Opponents: 16.5-7.0-0.9

What does all this mean? Every game, the Heat are essentially trailing 20-0 before the first whistle. That’s a big hole for James and Wade to dig out of each night. They must be muttering, “You’re killing me, Smalls,” more than Ham did in “Sandlot.”

The worse news for the Heat? There isn’t much out there to replace those guys. Is signing people like Rashad McCants or Robert Swift to the veteran minimum going to help? Honestly, I’m not sure it could get any worse.

The other option is for Miami to seek a trade, but who do they have to deal? Udonis Haslem is the only guy who would garner any interest. And it’s not like they can get someone else’s salary dump, because they don’t have the salaries in return to make the numbers match up.

Basically, they are what they are until next offseason. So, what are they? I’m thinking a No. 5 seed behind the Celtics, Magic, Bulls and Hawks.

MINDING MINUTES

NBA blogger Kevin Chouinard of Anaheim Amigos analyzed the concerning amount of minutes that have piled up for the Celtics’ Big Four in the absences of Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal and Delonte West. The chart:

While not one of the C’s top four players has seen a decrease in minutes this season, the Lakers have allowed for significant rest for Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest, while maintaining Pau Gasol‘s playing time. Only Lamar Odom has seen a considerable increase in minutes this early in the season.

Chouinard points out that perhaps the 2010-11 Celtics are aiming for a similar blueprint as they’ve utilized in each of the past three seasons, when they compiled a 78-12 record in games played before Christmas. Could Doc Rivers be preparing for another significant stretch of .500 play in the second half?

PERKINS’ PREPARATION

An old friend of Green Street, Jessica Camerato, caught up with Kendrick Perkins to see how his rehab was going so far this season. According to him, it’s going well. Very well. He expects to be ready before the All-Star break. In the meantime, it’s killing him not to be playing alongside the Big Four:

“It’s been easier as far as physically,” Perkins told Camerato. “Mentally it’s harder, watching guys go at it and play basketball. It’s tough watching the team doing what they do. So mentally, it’s harder.”

Perkins’s return could be one reason the C’s may be able to limit the Big Four’s minutes and avoid a significant drop-off in performance after the All-Star break.

BOSTON COLLEGE GOING HOLLYWOOD

Boston College is expected to sign three Los Angeles-area recruits on Wednesday — Brea Olinda’s Kyle Caudill, Valencia’s Lonnie Jackson and Long Beach Poly’s Ryan Anderson.

Obviously, the Los Angeles Times asked them if they would abandon their Lakers roots in favor of Celtics pride. The short answer: No.

“It will be interesting,” Anderson told the LA Times. “I’m still going to root for the Lakers. Hopefully, they don’t beat me up too bad.”

BENCH MONIKERS

I bookmarked this item a week ago and had forgotten about until today. After Phil Jackson dubbed his bench “The Renegades,” Trey Kerby came up with 29 other nicknames for NBA benches. Good stuff.

The Celtics are one of the better ones (“Three Men and a Big Baby”), although Shaq already came up with a pretty good one in “The Boston Bench Mob.”

Other favorites: Big Head Za and the Monsters (Hawks), Vomitron (Wizards) and The Juwan Howards (Heat).

(Have a question, concern or conception for tomorrow’s Irish Coffee? Send a message to @brohrbach on Twitter.)

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  • Paul Freed

    Absolutely a joke. Starting PG’s stats mean nothing!!!! Lebron is our PG

  • Ben Rohrbach

    That must be why Miami is 0-3 against good point guards. And the 13 points/17 assists per game that Rondo/CP3/D-Will put up against the Heat mean nothing? LeBron can’t guard Rondo AND Pierce on the other end, too.

  • Chris

    Its too early in the season for declaring them 5th. I like the Hawks but they really havent played anybody good and the two times they have they lost. The Celtics are going to struggle down the stretch in the regular season because of age like last year but not as bad because there bench is deeper. I think Orlando and the Heat are going to finish 1 and 2 because of there defense and youth of there superstars to go 40 minutes every night. This is just for regular season I am saying because I still think the Celtics have the best chance in the East to go to the finals.

  • http://greenstreet.com Jony

    If you know about basketball you know that reason that carlos numbers are so low is because he Lebron Wade and Bosh control the ball most of the time and as a true point guard you are not require to score a lot of points but to set up plays for the other players and in the other hand who Deron Williams Rondo and Paul hasnt kill anyways those are players that produce every night and to expect something that nobody else is capable of doing is just stupid basketball IQ

  • Ben Rohrbach

    A true point guard who is setting up plays for other players is exactly what Miami needs. Unfortunately, Arroyo isn’t doing that, as he’s averaging two assists per game. And Paul, Rondo and Williams’ assist totals with Arroyo defending, respectively, are their highest, second-highest and second-highest of the season. Other players seem to be capable of disrupting them enough to keep them from averaging 16.7 assists against them. Just not Arroyo.

  • James C.

    It’s eight games into the season, and you’re declaring conclusions that are pretty ridiculous. Especially with the Hawks, who have proven this year how inconsistent they can be (going 0-3 after starting 6-0), and always are.

    But if you want to use an eight game sample size, I think it’s convenient that you’re ignoring the fact that Miami is second in the league at point differential and number one in total defense (both points allowed and FG%).

    Now, Miami is not a perfect team, and that’s obvious. But your argument that they’re only the fifth best team in the crappy Eastern conference seems to ONLY be based on their two weaknesses (PG & C). You’re conveniently ignoring what they’ve done well. Yes, you really went out on a limb saying that Carlos Arroyo and Joel Anthony will get outplayed in most (possibly every) games, but saying “the Heat are essentially trailing 20-0 before the first whistle” is blatantly ignorant. Compare other teams’ SG/SF combos with our SF/SG combo (Wade and James are averaging a combined 46ppg so far and shooting 47%) and you’ll notice most teams will start in a hole in that match-up as well.

    I agree with you with one point: If there was a 7-game series right now between the Heat and Celtics, Boston would likely win, no matter what the home court advantage is (But I guess we’ll have a better opinion of that after tonight). Other then that, please don’t use eight-game sample sizes to criticize a team that has an 82-game schedule. And if you are, don’t cherry-pick numbers to conveniently fit your argument. You just sound dumb.

  • Ben Rohrbach

    The fact that James and Wade have to outscore their counterparts by more than 20 points per game is exactly the point I was making. They scored 44 combined points against the Celtics in the opener; unfortunately, Allen and Pierce scored 39. If Miami had even a serviceable PG and/or C, they’d be leagues better.

    On their defense: Yes, they’ve held opponents to 90.1 points per game. However, against teams not named the 76ers, Nets and Timberwolves, the Heat are 1-3 with a plus-3.3 point differential — and that’s with a 26-point win against the Magic.

    You can say they have the best defensive numbers all you want, but their record is 5-3. There’s reasons for that, like having an awful point guard and center that make it harder to win.

  • James C.

    That’s a fair point. And now, after last night’s game, it’s hard to defend Miami. But do me a favor, they’re going to have more regular season wins then the Hawks. I still think they’re going to have a top-2 seed in the East, but obviously now that’s hard to stand behind, and I understand that. Consider this: they’re going to absolutely feast on the bad teams in the league, which will account for about 40-43 wins. And is it out of the realm of possibility that they actually get better? (I’d be shocked if Chalmers isn’t starting soon, and I think Spoelstra has finally realized that Joel Anthony’s hands are made of water. Dampier?). Considering this, I’d be shocked if they lose less then 58 games.

    Ugh, I realize it’s silly to stand up for my team after what happened last night (a home game for Miami), but my original point is this: to knee-jerk on the first 8 (now 9) games and misconstrue the numbers to prove your point is a bit shady. Not that your points weren’t valid. To say they’ll be worse then the fraudulent Hawks and worse then the same Magic team they demolished by 26 two weeks ago seems downright incendiary. But alas, Miami looked really crappy last night, so if you think that makes my point null in void, I won’t blame you.

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