Green Street
NEED TO KNOW
Don't forget to follow Ben on Twitter.
A WEEI.com Celtics Blog
WEEI.com Blog Network
RSS
Irish Coffee: Odds are, Celtics not No. 1? 03.14.11 at 11:47 am ET
By

Wake up with the Celtics and your daily dose of Irish Coffee …

We’re entering the home stretch of the NBA season, and the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference is a definite possiblity for the Celtics. But according to John Hollinger’s NBA Playoff Odds, the Bulls have a better shot — and the Heat have almost no shot — at that top spot.

Chicago Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau argues for a call during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Charlotte Bobcats, Wednesday, March 9, 2011, in Charlotte, N.C. Chicago won 101-84.

Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau has his team threatening for the top spot. (AP)

While an Eastern Conference finals Game 7 at home is an added bonus, the ultimate prize for whichever of those three teams captures the No. 1 seed is the simple fact that the other two would have to battle each other in the conference semifinals, while the No. 1 seed would face either the Magic or Hawks in Round 2 — regardless of what Celtics head coach Doc Rivers or Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau would have you believe …

Rivers: “I would like it. It’s not going to be a deal-breaker for us, honestly. I want it, though. I think it’s important. But right now I can say I’m not focused on that at all. I’m not thinking about the one-seed at all. Early in the year we were clearly thinking about it, but right now I think about getting guys back healthy. Let’s act like a one-seed even if we’re not.”

Thibodeau: “That doesn’t guarantee anything. Where I think it does make a difference is Game 7 of a playoff series, to have it at home. You want to do your best to put as many things in your favor as possible.” 

So, the No. 1 seed has been the C’s ultimate goal all season, but it’s no longer the priority now that the Bulls have threatened to take it from them? I’m not buying it. The Celtics want that top seed, and they just might need it. How close will the race for the No. 1 seed be? Down to the wire, for sure. See for yourself …

CELTICS (47-17; 18 games remaining)

  • at New Jersey (21-43)
  • vs. Indiana (28-38)
  • at Houston (33-34)
  • at New Orleans (39-29)
  • at New York (34-31)
  • vs. Memphis (36-31)
  • vs. Charlotte (28-38)
  • at Minnesota (17-51)
  • at Indiana (28-38)
  • at San Antonio (54-12)
  • at Atlanta (38-28)
  • vs. Detroit (23-44)
  • vs. Philadelphia (34-32)
  • at Chicago (47-18)
  • vs. Washington (16-48)
  • at Miami (45-21)
  • at Washington (16-48)
  • vs. New York (34-31)

Home games remaining: 7
Opponents’ winning percentage: .482 (571-615)
ESPN.com odds to capture No. 1 seed: 39.4 percent
Record vs. remaining teams on schedule: 29-8 (.784)
Games remaining against .500-plus teams: 9
Games remaining against potential playoff teams: 12

BULLS (47-18; 17 games remaining)

  • vs. Washington (16-48)
  • at New Jersey (21-43)
  • at Indiana  (28-38)
  • vs. Sacramento (15-49)
  • at Atlanta  (38-28)
  • vs. Memphis  (36-31)
  • at Milwaukee  (26-39)
  • vs. Philadelphia  (34-32)
  • at Minnesota  (17-51)
  • at Detroit  (23-44)
  • vs. Toronto  (18-48)
  • vs. Phoenix  (33-31)
  • vs. Boston (47-17)
  • at Cleveland (12-53)
  • at Orlando  (42-25)
  • at New York  (34-31)
  • vs. New Jersey  (21-43)

Home games remaining: 8
Opponents’ winning percentage: .415 (461-651)
ESPN.com odds to capture No. 1 seed: 57.1 percent
Record vs. remaining teams on schedule: 28-10 (.737)
Games remaining against .500-plus teams: 7
Games remaining against potential playoff teams: 8

HEAT (45-21; 16 games remaining)

  • vs. San Antonio (54-12)
  • vs. Oklahoma City (42-23)
  • at Atlanta (38-28)
  • vs. Denver (39-27)
  • at Detroit (23-44)
  • vs. Philadelphia (34-32)
  • vs. Houston (33-34)
  • at Cleveland (12-53)
  • at Washington (16-48)
  • at Minnesota (17-51)
  • at New Jersey (21-43)
  • Milwaukee (26-39)
  • vs. Charlotte (28-38)
  • vs. Boston (47-17)
  • at Atlanta (38-28)
  • at Toronto (18-48)

Home games remaining: 7
Opponents’ winning percentage: .462
ESPN.com odds to capture No. 1 seed: 3.5 percent
Record vs. remaining teams on schedule: 27-7 (.794)
Games remaining against .500-plus teams: 7
Games remaining against potential playoff teams: 9

Trailing four games in the loss column with 16 to play, the Heat have almost no chance of capturing the top seed — and in all likelihood will end up third. The Bulls, on the other hand, face the easiest schedule (by far) of the three teams.

The Bulls trail the Celtics by one game in the loss column and have a 1-2 record against the C’s this season, so their April 7 showdown in Chicago could decide the No. 1 billing. A Celtics victory would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Bulls would have to make up three games in the loss column with 17 to play.

However, should the Bulls defeat the C’s on April 7 and the two teams finish 2-2 against each other this season, the Bulls would likely own the third tiebreaker (division record), as Chicago is a perfect 12-0 in the Central Division with one game apiece remaining against the Pacers, Bucks, Pistons and Cavaliers.

Meanwhile, the Celtics are 10-2 in the Atlantic Division with four games remaining against the Knicks (2), 76ers and Nets. So, be sure the Celtics have April 7 circled.

Should they lose that game to the Bulls, Celtics fans can take solace in the fact that Will Perdue – a four-time champion with the Bulls in the 1990s — doesn’t believe Chicago can defeat Boston, regardless of the seeding …

Perdue (via CSN Chicago): “I think they can beat the Hawks, the Magic – any other team right now – except for the Boston Celtics in a seven-game series.”

(Have a question, concern or conception for tomorrow’s Irish Coffee or a future mailbag? Send an e-mail tobrohrbach@weei.com or a Twitter message to @brohrbach.)

Read More: Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Doc Rivers, Miami Heat Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Banner18

    There are several factors not mentioned:
    1 Will Bulls rest Rose at all? Now, with Arroyo ( and West coming back) Rondo is finally getting some rest.
    2 How many games will Boozer miss with his ankle injury?
    3 Will Shaq be back for the April 7 Bulls game? (I think he’s back by April 1, and in stride for Bulls)
    4 Michael Jordan predicted Bulls will win 6 titles. His managerial foresight and talent recognition has not been stellar.

    In any event, the next 5 game in 7 night stretch will detemine both how important the Bulls game will be and how ready the C’s are to take them on. If the bench can become a dangerous, cohesive unit, allowing the starters to get some rest, then the C’s will be ready to take on anyone.
    Glenn
    Now on Twitter as Celticsbanner

  • Craig Dillon

    Good analysis. Until the last few weeks, I would have agreed with Perdue. However, the recent play of both the Bulls and the Celtics makes me feel that a head to head meeting is now a toss up. The trade has brought two good guys, but it will take awhile for them to learn the Celtic system. Additionally, I am beginning to think that the Celtics have lost a little bit of defense when they lost Thibadeau. Their defense does not seem as sharp or as relentless as it used to be. The Bulls are much better than the team that took the Celtics to the limit two years ago. The Bulls give the Celtics matchup problems that they didn’t then. With that in minde, I am picking the Bulls over the Celtics when they meet in post-season 4-3.

    As for the Heat, they will be lucky to get past either NY or the 76ers to be defeated handily in the second round.

  • Spencer King

    Very well done article! Picked it up off SI Bulls site. I enjoy Boston fans and experts, especially now that TT is the Bulls coach. I really think he has has manifested the Bulls into the team they are, hence: THANK YOU BOSTON ! In any case when Chicago and Boston meet, it will be as notable as Freddy vs Jason, or Godzilla vs King Kong.

    On a final note as Boston is a great hockey town, I’d sure like to see the Bulls and Celtics line up after a well fought series and shake hands. I never have understood why the extreme image conscious David Stern has not implemented this outstanding show of sportsmanship.

    Thanks, Spencer

  • ssmithtank322

    Nice writeup. I have a couple of points, though. Even though the Bulls have the easier schedule, their winning percentage against those remaining teams is much worse than the Celtics and Heat. I think that may be a better indicator rather than the opponent Win %, so I think the Bulls won’t get the top seed. Also, the first tie-breaker after the Win/Loss record is the conference record, not the division record, when the teams are not in the same division. Since the Celtics have a 3-game edge in regards to the conference record over the Bulls, I think this also helps the Celtics.

  • boris

    I dont think the no. 1 seed matters as much as rest. I don’t think playing ny or phi in the first round is scarey. They will dispense of either in four or five. And as for playing miami instead of orlando, i don’t think that makes much difference, either. In fact, post trade, they might have an easier time with the heat. They will win either series. That leaves them vs. Chi without homecourt advantage. That is the biggest drawback. But I still don’t see Chi even with homecourt, winning the series. Thus – rest up KG, Rondo, Paul and Ray. It’s going to be a fun and long post season. (Now the Lakers with Bynum healthy are scarey – tonight vs Orlando and he got something like 20 rebounds in 30 minutes…)

Celtics Box Score
Celtics Schedule
Celtics Headlines
NBA Headlines