Green Street
NEED TO KNOW
Don't forget to follow Ben on Twitter.
AT&T
A WEEI.com Celtics Blog
WEEI.com Blog Network
Race for top seed in Eastern Conference takes shape 03.22.11 at 2:34 pm ET
By

A few weeks ago, the Celtics were in the driver’s seat for the best record in the Eastern Conference. After beating the Suns on March 2, their record stood at 44-15, three games ahead of the Bulls. Things changed quickly, as the Celtics went 3-4 over the next two weeks, while the Bulls reeled off eight straight wins to take a momentary lead.

The Celtics got themselves back on track with comeback wins against New Orleans and New York, and now with 13 games left in the regular season, the Celtics and Bulls are tied again at 50-9 heading into Chicago’s game with the Hawks on Tuesday night.

In examining the remaining schedule, the Celtics have a slightly tougher slate of games — but they own two tiebreakers. First, they have gone 2-1 against Chicago with the final matchup scheduled for April 7 at the United Center. If the Celtics win that game, they’ll own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Even if they lose, they currently have a better conference record (33-6) than Chicago (30-9), which is the next tiebreaker.

The Celtics are on record as saying that health is their primary focus, not getting homecourt. Yet with 13 games left it remains a possibility and there is incentive. At stake is homecourt advantage as well as the benefit of playing a sub-500 team in the first round and avoiding a semifinal matchup with Miami.

Here’s how the schedule break down:

Record: 50-19 

Home: 6 (Memphis, Philadelphia, Toronto, Phoenix, Boston, New Jersey)

Road: 7 (Atlanta, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando, New York)

Back-to-backs: 4 (Two second games at home against Toronto and New Jersey and two on the road against Milwaukee and Cleveland).

Playoff opponents: 6

Home: Memphis, Philadelphia, Boston

Road: Atlanta, Orlando, New York

Toughest stretch: After they play the Celtics on April 7, the Bulls have three games on the road against Cleveland, Orlando and New York before finishing the regular season at home against New Jersey. There are two back-to-backs against the Cavs and Nets.

RECORD: 50-19

Home: 6 (Memphis, Charlotte, Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington, New York)

Road: 7 (Minnesota, Indiana, San Antonio, Atlanta, Chicago, Washington, Miami)

Back-to-backs: 4 (One second game at home against Washington and three on the road against Indiana, Atlanta and Washington).

Playoff opponents: 7

Home: Memphis, Philadelphia, New York

Road: San Antonio, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami

Toughest stretch: There are actually two. The first is a four-game road trip that has two sets of back-t0-backs with Minnesota and Indiana followed by San Antonio and Atlanta. The second starts with the Bulls game and is followed by a back-to-back at home against Washington on Friday and then a trip to Miami for a Sunday afternoon game with yet another back-to-back against the Wizards, this time in Washington.

How many wins over the final 13 games will it take to clinch the East? Various projection models have it at 59, which would mean going 9-4 down the stretch. Justin Kubatko’s forecast at Basketball-Reference has the Bulls with a 57.4 percent probability of getting the top seed and he has the Celtics at 35.4 percent going into Tuesday night’s games. The Heat have a slim 7 percent chance. Based on the schedule, and also the Celtics stated intentions to not go all out for the top seed, the Bulls have to be considered the favorites but that can change in a week.

Read More: Bulls, Celtics, Homecourt, Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Nit

    50-19 actually

  • Banner18

    Great info and analysis. Thanks! Just getting Shaq back should help in several ways: 1. Psychological Boost 2 Rebounding/shot blocking 3. moves Krstic to 2nd unit which should make them more effective.

  • Beat LA

    It would be great to get the #1 seed but shouldn’t the real goal be just staying ahead of the Lakers? The C’s can handle being a road team against the Bulls in the east finals but we saw last year how much more important it is to have home court in the finals. And after last night with the Spurs losing Duncan it’s looking easier and easier for the Lakers to be there.

  • http://Enteryourwebsite... MK

    2nd tiebreaker is division record so if the Bulls win on the 7th then they own the tiebreaker.

  • proftom

    PLEASE, the Bulls had a cake walk of a season. They are not a deep playoff type of team. Second round their done.

  • JR

    “PLEASE, the Bulls had a cake walk of a season.”

    Could you elaborate? Because I see a team that incorporated 6 new faces and a new head coach, then lost one of their main cogs for 6 weeks before losing a second one for 2-1/2 months.

  • Prof

    Understand that because u get the top seed doesn’t mean you’ll cruise through your conference. In 2007, Dallas Mavs were the top seed and got bounced by the 8th seeded Warriors. In 2008, Boston Celtics went 7 games with the Hawks and Cavs in the first 2 rounds. Unlike some people I’m not concerned about any team the Celtics face, especially the Bulls or Miami.

  • Prof

    “PLEASE, the Bulls had a cake walk of a season.”

    No, they had the same tough schedule like every other team. But I do agree with JR. They’re not deep enough to beat the C’s or Lakers in a 7 game series. A series with Bos vs Chi itself will be interesting to watch. If Chicago get’s the HC which they probably will unless the C’s aren’t consistent these next games, then the Celtics will have to win one of the 2 games in CHI. I think they can do it if they play intense defense.

  • BULL4EVER

    This Chicago team is just a round 2 team, yeah okay!!!!!these are the Bulls and they are totally capable of beating anyone in the league with or without home-court.You take a look at a team like Chicago that will be a dangerous team even without home-court and they will be lethal with home-court throughout the postseason come April,May and June,totally simliar to dangerous when banged up and lethal when healthy.Every other team must BEWARE of D’Rose and Co. and of course,that means you too Boston.GO BULLS!!!!!!!!!

  • thehef

    As noted above by BeatLA, the most important goal should be staying ahead of the Lakers. And as of now – based upon LA’s home-heavy schedule the rest of the way – that seems less likely than holding off the Bulls… Looking at all three teams’ schedules, I see the C’s finishing 59-23, one game short of both LA & Chic… The C’s can get to 60 or 61, though, with some solid road play AND a better on the second of back-to-backs… The Lakers finishing at 60 assumes only two more losses – both on the road (Utah & Port) – and going undefeated at home (incl wins against NO, Dall, Denv, Utah, OKC, & SAnt).

    And an update on Kubatko’s probabilities: Bulls now 63.7% change of top seed, C’s at 31.4%… To win the finals:

    Bulls 18.6
    Spurs 17.5
    Heat 16.6
    Lakers 14.6
    C’s 12.3

    Those numbers based upon a computer sim, which presumably doesn’t take into account the never-been-anywhere-close-before factor.

  • JR

    “which presumably doesn’t take into account the never-been-anywhere-close-before factor.”

    Didn’t the Celtics battle through that factor to win 3 years ago?

  • http://kokopoko.com kopokolo

    I simply wanted to thank you so much once more. I do not know the things that I would have worked on in the absence of the actual tactics provided by you relating to that area of interest. Completely was a frightening setting for me personally, however , taking a look at this expert way you handled that made me to weep with gladness. I am happy for this work and thus hope that you really know what a powerful job your are providing teaching many others through the use of your blog post. I know that you have never encountered any of us.

Celtics Box Score
Celtics Schedule
Celtics Headlines
NBA Headlines